WP3: Spatial modelling

Understanding where species live today—and how they may shift tomorrow—is central to protecting the Baltic Sea. 

Work Package 3 (WP3) is developing advanced spatial models that bring together environmental data, species observations, and human pressures to create a powerful tool for marine management.

This work is led by Roland Pesch at Jade University, with contributions from HELCOM Secretariat, SLU, SYKE, UTARTU, and SGU.

The second phase pushes into the future. By applying environmental scenarios, the team projects how species and habitats may shift under climate change and other human pressures. 

This forward-looking approach highlights both current and future biodiversity hotspots, as well as areas that show ecological resilience—insights that will directly feed into conservation prioritization in our ecosystem work in Work Package 4 and governance work in Work Package 6.

The path forward is not without obstacles. Species observations vary in how they’re collected, leaving gaps across space and time. Predictor datasets can fall short of the desired resolution, and national impact assessments differ in their scope. 

But these hurdles have sparked innovation. The team has developed new downscaling methods, strengthened regional collaboration, and tapped into fresh data sources—like eBird for seabird modelling or prototype tools for detecting recreational boating—turning challenges into opportunities for richer, more accurate models.