WP3: Spatial modelling

Knowing where biodiversity occurs is only part of the picture. Understanding how human activities affect marine ecosystems is equally important for identifying where protection and management efforts are most needed.

Activities such as shipping, fishing, offshore energy production and coastal development generate pressures ranging from underwater noise and pollution to physical disturbance of the seabed. These pressures can overlap, potentially affecting species and habitats in different ways.

To better understand these relationships, PROTECT BALTIC has compiled approximately 12,000 spatial layers relating to human activities, pressures and their potential impacts. This extensive evidence base supports the development of more detailed assessments of where human activities may affect marine biodiversity.

Building on methods used in previous HELCOM holistic assessments, the project has also updated the Spatial Pressure and Impact Assessment (SPIA) Tool. The tool combines 17 harmonised pressure layers with distribution data for more than 700 species and information on their sensitivity to different pressures.

Users can explore individual pressures or assess their potential cumulative impacts on species and habitats. The spatial resolution has also been increased from 1 km to 250 metres, allowing a more detailed examination of where pressures overlap with biodiversity and where management measures may be needed.

Developed as an open-source QGIS plug-in, SPIA allows users to carry out their own assessments using regional datasets or their own spatial information. The results show relative patterns of potential pressure and impact rather than direct measurements of ecological damage, and should be interpreted alongside monitoring data and expert knowledge.