WP5: Ecological coherence

Protecting the Baltic Sea isn’t only about drawing lines on a map—it’s about making sure those protected areas function as a true network.

Work Package 5 (WP5) takes on this challenge by strengthening the ecological coherence of the MPA network. The aim is to ensure that biodiversity and ecosystem services are effectively safeguarded under current and future climate conditions, while recognizing the presence of human activities that shape the sea.

This work is led by Charlotte Berkström at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU Aqua).

Other partners involved: HELCOM Secretariat, JHS, SYKE & UTARTU

What does "ecological coherence" mean?

A coherent MPA network does not only protect scattered sites, but ensures that conservation areas represent the full diversity of species and habitats, replicate key features in multiple places, are large and robust enough to persist over time, and remain connected so that organisms and ecological processes can flow between them.

These four pillars—representativity, replication, adequacy, and connectivity—form the benchmark against which the Baltic Sea network is being tested.

Representativity
Ensure the range of conservation features—species, habitats, key processes—are present across the network.
Replication
Protect multiple examples of important habitats and populations to buffer disturbances and capture natural variability.
Adequacy
Secure sufficient size, shape, quality, and ecological processes (including genetic diversity) for long-term persistence.
Connectivity
Strengthen structural (where MPAs are and how they’re arranged) and functional (how organisms and materials move) links at relevant spatial and temporal scales.

Identifying priority areas for conservation to promote connectivity & mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic disturbance

Mapping how life connects

The work begins with a revision of the existing criteria and targets. These are being updated to match the latest scientific knowledge and the region’s environmental objectives, providing clear guidance on what effective coherence looks like in practice.

The project then moves into developing advanced connectivity models. For species that drift passively with currents, high-resolution biophysical models are used to track dispersal across the sea. For those fish that move actively, graph-based models capture their behaviour and highlight how they move across habitats.

By combining these approaches, we are building a richer picture of how life moves and interacts across the Baltic.

Taking stock of the MPA network

With these tools in place, the project assesses how well the current HELCOM MPA Network performs.

Species and habitat distribution layers are brought together to measure representativity, adequacy, replication, and connectivity, revealing the strengths of existing protections and the gaps where the network falls short.

This evidence provides a foundation for improvement, pointing to areas where additional protection could make the biggest difference.

The final step is to look forward by carrying out spatial prioritization analyses to identify the areas best suited for expanding the network.

These analyses highlight places that complement existing MPAs, integrate ecosystem services, account for future climate projections, and align with the broader conservation targets set under Work Package 6 of the project.

Creating a resilient system

Importantly, the assessment does not treat the sea as untouched wilderness.

It overlays ecological findings with data on human pressures such as shipping, fishing, and coastal development. This makes it possible to identify not only where connectivity is strongest, but also where it is most at risk, and where resilience remains to be secured.

By following this process step by step—from updated criteria, to connectivity models, to coherence assessments, and finally to prioritization maps—Work Package 5 is building a decision-ready foundation for strengthening the Baltic Sea’s MPA network.

The outcome will be more than a static set of sites: it will be a connected, resilient system capable of sustaining nature and people into the future.

Deliverables

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Coming in May 2026

Guidance for ecological coherence assessment

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Coming in February 2028

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Coming in February 2028

Coherence assessment report

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Coming in May 2028

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

Coming in May 2028

WP5: Ecological coherence

Charlotte Berkström

Charlotte Berkström

Charlotte Berkström

Charlotte Berkström

Charlotte Berkström

What does "ecological coherence" mean?

Mapping how life connects

Taking stock of the MPA network

Creating a resilient system

Deliverables

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Guidance for ecological coherence assessment

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Connectivity maps & matrices of key species, both passively & actively dispersing

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Coherence assessment report

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

Code for ecological coherence assessment

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

Maps for optimizing the MPA network

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